In a stunning electoral triumph, Ecuador’s conservative President Daniel Noboa has secured re-election with nearly 56% of the vote, defeating his leftist rival Luisa González by a margin of almost 12 percentage points. With 95% of the ballots counted following Sunday’s runoff election, Noboa’s victory marks an unexpected landslide over González, the candidate representing Revolución Ciudadana, the political movement tied to former President Rafael Correa. However, the election’s aftermath has been marred by allegations of fraud from González and her supporters, setting the stage for renewed political tensions in the Andean nation.

A Historic Win for Noboa

At just 37 years old, Noboa—the son of Álvaro Noboa, Ecuador’s wealthiest man—has emerged as a decisive figure in the country’s turbulent politics. His campaign centered on promises to combat rising violence linked to drug trafficking mafias, address the economic crisis, and provide opportunities for young people, who make up a significant portion of Ecuador’s population. The president’s tough-on-crime stance, including declaring a two-month state of emergency and nightly curfews in seven provinces and Quito, appears to have resonated strongly with voters.

“This victory is historic—a win of more than 10 points, surpassing one million votes,” Noboa declared calmly from his luxurious coastal residence in Olón, northwest of Guayaquil. Surprisingly, he chose not to celebrate among throngs of supporters in Quito but instead addressed the nation surrounded by a small group of family and friends. “There is no doubt about who won. Ecuador is changing and has chosen a new path.”

Noboa’s presidency began just over a year ago when he assumed office to complete the term of former conservative leader Guillermo Lasso. Since then, he has worked tirelessly toward securing this mandate. While February’s first-round vote saw him narrowly edge out González by only 17,000 ballots, Sunday’s result defied pollsters’ predictions of a tight race. Instead, it revealed a deeply polarized electorate swayed by fears of a return to the policies associated with Correa’s decade-long rule (2007–2017).

González Denounces Electoral Fraud

For her part, Luisa González refused to concede defeat, alleging widespread electoral fraud. Speaking before thousands of supporters in Quito, she accused the National Electoral Council (CNE) of manipulating results to favor Noboa. “We are witnessing the most grotesque electoral fraud,” González asserted. “We will demand a recount and that the ballot boxes be opened. The abuse of power never took a break; they used the CNE to do whatever they wanted and trample democracy.”

Her claims echo warnings made during the final days of campaigning, when González alleged that Noboa’s team was pre-emptively planting fake ballots to fabricate evidence of fraud should she win. Ironically, the scenario unfolded in reverse, with González now at the center of baseless accusations. Despite calls for calm, her refusal to recognize the outcome raises concerns about potential unrest in the coming weeks.

The Shadow of Correa

The specter of Rafael Correa loomed large over González’s candidacy, complicating her efforts to broaden her appeal. Although living in exile in Belgium, Correa remained vocal throughout the campaign, defending Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and criticizing Ecuador’s dollarized economy—positions that likely alienated moderate voters. Additionally, González struggled to attract the crucial indigenous vote, which accounted for 5% of ballots in February and could have tipped the scales in her favor.

Correa’s legacy continues to divide Ecuadorans. For many conservatives, his tenure is synonymous with corruption and authoritarianism, underscored by his conviction on graft charges—a case he insists is politically motivated. During Sunday’s celebrations outside the CNE headquarters, pro-Noboa demonstrators wore T-shirts emblazoned with slogans like “No Corruption” and mocked the prospect of a González presidency turning Ecuador into “Ecuazuela,” a play on Venezuela’s struggles under Maduro.

Record Turnout Reflects Polarization

Sunday’s election saw voter turnout reach nearly 84%, three percentage points higher than in the first round. Noboa successfully mobilized older voters, particularly those over 65—a demographic exempt from mandatory voting but seen as critical to punishing Correa’s past administration. Meanwhile, González’s inability to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Noboa’s handling of crime and inflation proved costly.

What Lies Ahead?

While the scale of Noboa’s victory makes credible allegations of fraud unlikely, González’s rejection of the results ensures that political volatility will persist. Whether her coalition can sustain street protests and maintain pressure remains to be seen. For now, Noboa begins his full four-year term with a clear mandate—but also with immense challenges ahead.

As Ecuador charts its course under Noboa’s leadership, questions linger about how effectively he can address the deep-rooted issues driving the country’s instability. Can he fulfill his promise of security and opportunity, or will his presidency exacerbate existing divides? One thing is certain: the battle between Ecuador’s left and right is far from over.