Berlin, December 27, 2024 – German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has officially dissolved the Bundestag, paving the way for early elections on February 23 that could signal a dramatic political shift in Europe’s largest economy. This move follows the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government in November, sparking intense political maneuvering and an unusually heated campaign.

“Especially in difficult times like these, stability requires a government capable of acting and reliable majorities in parliament,” Steinmeier said in his formal announcement.

The decision comes after months of political instability, culminating in a failed confidence vote for Scholz earlier this month. Germany’s constitution ensures that such transitions are orderly, aiming to avoid the chaos that plagued the Weimar Republic in the lead-up to World War II. Scholz’s request to dissolve parliament and Steinmeier’s subsequent approval marks the final procedural step in this well-defined process.

Conservatives Lead in the Polls

Recent polling shows the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its leader Friedrich Merz commanding a strong lead with 31% of voter support. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in second place at 19%, while Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) trails in third with 17%.

Merz, who has positioned the CDU further to the right on key issues like migration and energy, is poised to lead what could be Germany’s most rightward-leaning government in decades. However, analysts suggest that coalition negotiations with at least one center-left party will likely temper the extent of this shift.

Heated Campaign and Key Issues

The upcoming election is expected to focus heavily on Germany’s struggling economy, migration, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Public dissatisfaction with the country’s economic performance is growing, as Germany faces its second consecutive year of economic contraction and a wave of layoffs in key industries.

The election campaign, which has already begun in earnest, is proving to be more contentious than usual. Merz has launched a series of sharp critiques against Scholz and the SPD, while Scholz has responded in kind, dismissing Merz as “Little Fritz” in a jab that highlights the campaign’s increasingly personal tone.

Magdeburg Christmas Market Attack Intensifies Debate

A deadly attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg has further inflamed the political climate. Five people were killed and many more injured in an incident that has since dominated campaign discussions. The alleged attacker, a Saudi Arabian refugee with reported sympathies for far-right ideologies and the AfD, has sparked outrage and renewed debate over immigration and security policies.

The AfD has capitalized on the tragedy to amplify its anti-immigration platform. “We want something to finally change in our country, so we can finally live in safety again,” declared Alice Weidel, the party’s chancellor candidate, at a rally in Magdeburg.

Germany’s Political Future at a Crossroads

As the election date approaches, Germany faces a critical juncture. The potential for a strong conservative government, tempered or not by coalition agreements, could redefine the country’s policies on immigration, energy, and its role in the European Union. Meanwhile, the growing popularity of the far-right AfD reflects a deeper sense of discontent among German voters, adding another layer of uncertainty to the country’s political future.

The coming weeks will be marked by a condensed and fiercely contested campaign as parties vie for the chance to shape the direction of Germany during a time of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. All eyes will be on February 23 to see whether the country’s political landscape takes its sharpest turn to the right in decades or if voters opt for a more centrist path forward.

Opening the award ceremony of the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought 2024, President Metsola said: “In their quest for justice, democracy and the rule of law, Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado are fearlessly upholding values that millions of Venezuelans and the European Parliament hold so dear. This award is not just a recognition but also a reminder that the fight for freedom is never in vain. The future of Venezuela belongs to its people and the European Parliament stands proudly with them.”

María Corina Machado, represented in the ceremony by her daughter Ana Corina Sosa, was elected opposition candidate for the Venezuelan presidency on behalf of the ‘United Democratic Platform’ in 2023, before being disqualified by the government-controlled National Electoral Council.

Edmundo González Urrutia, a diplomat and politician who succeeded Machado as the main opposition candidate after her disqualification, denounced the failure to publish the official results of the July 2024 presidential elections and contested Nicolás Maduro’s declared victory. He left Venezuela in September 2024, following the issuing of an arrest warrant against him, and was given refuge in Spain.

Speaking to MEPs, Mr González Urrutia said: “sooner rather than later, our country will take a turn in a direction determined by our people. The abuse and violence of these days is just a clumsy attempt to postpone what is unavoidable.”

“No government based on violence is stable,” Mr González Urrutia said, underlining the fact that Venezuelans, including partisans and former partisans of the regime, “want to advance on the path of freedom, democracy and understanding among us all.”

Venezuela’s president-elect said the Sakharov award strengthens his commitment to dialogue and symbolises the unity of democrats across the world who “today, more than ever, need each other”. He concluded that “Venezuela’s fight for freedom and democracy is the fight for these values in the whole world.”

In her intervention made remotely, María Corina Machado denounced the fact that “for a quarter of a century they have attempted to divide, weaken and subdue us (…). Preaching hate, they tried to pit us against each other, people against people; divide us between rich and poor, left and right, white and black, those who leave and those who stay, and also for our religious beliefs.”

“They also pursued the destruction of all democratic institutions, from an independent judiciary to the popular vote. A corrupt and criminal regime has suffocated the economy, prompting the worst levels of hyperinflation in history and turning millions into dependents of public aid conditioned to political loyalty, without dignity nor future,” she added. “But Venezuela has reacted,” Ms Machado said, highlighting that the 28 July presidential elections marked the start of an unstoppable genuine change which transcends the current time and Venezuela’s borders. “We know we will succeed (…); Venezuela’s victory will be the victory of all humankind,” she concluded, thanking the European Parliament “for proving we are not alone”.

In a resolution adopted on 19 September 2024, the European Parliament recognised Mr González Urrutia as the legitimate and democratically elected President of Venezuela and María Corina Machado as leader of the country’s democratic forces. MEPs also said international election observation mission reports made it clear that the Venezuelan presidential election did not comply with international standards of electoral integrity.

Earlier in February 2024, the European Parliament had urged the member states to maintain the sanctions imposed on the Maduro regime, and to step them up until there is a clear and permanent commitment by the regime, in line with the Barbados Agreement, to uphold basic democratic standards, the rule of law and human rights.

In July 2023, the European Parliament strongly condemned the Venezuelan regime’s arbitrary and unconstitutional decision to prevent prominent political opposition figures such as María Corina Machado, Leopoldo López, Henrique Capriles and Freddy Superlano from running in the 2024 elections.

You can watch the recording of the ceremony.

Background

Named after Soviet physicist and political dissident Andrei Sakharov, the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought is the EU’s highest human rights award.

Created in 1988, it has been awarded by Parliament to individuals or organisations every year since 1988, in recognition of their work in one of the following areas: the defence of human rights and fundamental rights, in particular freedom of expression, the safeguarding of minority rights, respect for international law, the development of democracy and the defence of the rule of law.