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2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be ‘extremely active’ due to hotter oceans and La Niña

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This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with its April outlook.

The Americas have been told to brace for an ‘extremely active’ hurricane season this year.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) in the US are predicting 11 hurricanes in 2024, spurred on by a hotter Atlantic and a switch to ‘La Niña’ conditions.

This is the most hurricanes ever predicted by the expert unit since it began issuing an April outlook in 1995.

Researchers stress there’s still a high degree of uncertainty about how the season will unfold, but are urging residents along the US coastline and in the Caribbean to prepare.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” says Professor Michael Bell, one of the authors of this year’s forecast.

How will La Niña increase the chance of hurricanes?

There are two key factors behind the forecast for a particularly lively Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November.

The first is record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water, an active season is clearly on the cards. A warm Atlantic also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere: prime conditions for hurricanes.

We are currently emerging from an ‘El Niño’ phase; a naturally occurring seasonal climate phenomenon associated with surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño alone does not explain record high ocean temperatures around the world, however – especially not in the Atlantic. “Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said recently.

The second factor is that La Niña conditions are set to dominate by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October, according to the CSU researchers.

La Niña tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean. This results in reduced vertical wind shear (variation in wind speeds) which favours hurricane formation.

Given the combined signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has a “higher-than-normal confidence” at this time of year that America is in for a very active hurricane season.

23 named storms are predicted this year

In total, the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team is predicting that 23 named storms will strike during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Of those, researchers forecast 11 to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength – with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour (179 kph) or greater.

Looking back on decades of historical hurricane records, the experts have spotted some similarities to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020 seasons.

“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” says Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Before now, the highest number of hurricanes predicted in April was nine. This time last year six hurricanes were predicted. There ended up being seven; the most destructive of which was Hurricane Idalia – which made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida in August 2023, directly killing eight people and causing $3.6 billion (€3.3bn) in damage.

The researchers predict that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170 per cent of the average season from 1991–2020.

Where is most at risk from Atlantic hurricanes?

Coastal residents are, as usual, advised to take proper precautions.

The report calculates the probability of major hurricanes (category 3 or greater) making landfall in particular areas.

This year, there is a 62 per cent likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the entire US coastline, dropping to 34 per cent for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula.

For Caribbean residents, major hurricane chances stand at 66 per cent.

The team also provides probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles (80km) of: counties along the Gulf and US East Coast, hurricane-prone coastal states, Mexican states, Canadian provinces and countries in Central America and the Caribbean.

Considerable atmospheric changes can occur between April and peak season, and the forecast is only intended to provide a best estimate of activity. Further updates are due on 11 June, 9 July and 6 August.

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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A 4-year cruise or a €1 house in Italy: Inside the schemes helping Americans skip Trump’s presidency

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Searches by Americans for moving abroad soared in the 24 hours after the first polls closed, according to Google data.

Following the recent US election result, Google searches for ‘how to move to Europe’ increased by more than 1,000 per cent in some countries.

Searches by Americans for moving to Canada and Australia soared by 1,270 and 820 per cent respectively in the 24 hours after the first polls closed, according to Google data.

The interest in leaving the States has not gone unnoticed by marketing firms.

A residential cruise ship is now offering Americans a four-year ‘escape’ trip while a Sardinian village has relaunched its €1 house scheme.

Cruise company offers four-year escape from Trump

Cruise firm Villa Vie Residences is marketing a four-year round the world trip to Americans looking to skip Donald Trump’s second term as president.

The Tour La Vie programme offers passengers a stay of up to four years onboard while visiting 140 countries – which doesn’t include the US.

The irreverently named packages include a one-year ‘Escape from Reality’ cruise, a two-year ‘Mid-Term Selection’ option, a three-year ‘Everywhere but Home’ cruise, and the four-year ‘Skip Forward’ trip.

Guests would join the Villa Vie Odyssey, a residential cruise ship which set sail from Belfast in September, several months into its voyage.

“We came up with this marketing campaign before we even knew who would win. Regardless of who would have won, you would have half of the population upset,” CEO Mikael Petterson told US news site Newsweek.

“Quite frankly, we don’t have a political view one way or the other. We just wanted to give people who feel threatened to have a way to get out.”

Prices start at a little under $40,000 (€38,000) a year. For those opting for the full four-year escape, single-occupancy cabins start at $256,000 (€243,000) while double-occupancy costs up to $320,000 (€303,000).

The price includes all food and drinks (alcohol only at dinner), WiFi, medical visits, weekly housekeeping service and bi-weekly laundry.

Sardinian village relaunches €1 house scheme for Americans

In rural Sardinia, the village of Ollolai has revived its €1 house scheme, now targeting Americans exhausted by the election.

The homes-for-the-price-of-an-espresso offer has been relaunched for US citizens “worned [sic] out by global politics” and “looking to embrace a more balanced lifestyle”, local authorities write on the village’s website.

“Of course, we can’t specifically mention the name of one US president who just got elected, but we all know that he’s the one from whom many Americans want to get away from now and leave the country,” village mayor Francesco Columbo told US news site CNN.

“We have specifically created this website now to meet US post-elections relocation needs.”

Those needs include slowing down and recharging with Ollolai’s dreamy Mediterranean lifestyle.

“Nestled in pristine nature, surrounded by incredible cuisine, and immersed in a community with ancient traditions in the rare Earth’s Blue Zone, Ollolai is the perfect destination to reconnect, recharge and embrace a new way of life,” the website claims.

Available properties will soon be listed online with prices ranging from €1 for houses needing substantial renovations to €100,000 for those that are ready to live in.

This is not the first time the village in Sardinia has put houses for a pittance on the market. In a bid to halt a steep population decline, Ollolai began selling off abandoned homes in 2018 to people willing to carry out $25,000 (€24,000) of renovations within a three-year timespan.

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Catalonia’s holiday rental ban may not be allowed under EU law as Airbnb pushes back

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Catalonia has said they want to rid Barcelona of its 10,000 holiday lets in the next 5 years.

Catalonia’s recent ban on Airbnb-style holiday rentals breaches EU law, according to a complaint filed with the European Commission by an industry group.

The European Holiday Home Association claims that the ban, introduced by Catalonia in June this year, breaches the provision of services directive.

The Spanish region announced that they wanted to rid Barcelona of its 10,000 tourist flat licences over the next five years. The city has not granted new licences since 2014 but this has not helped to stem a housing crisis, with locals saying they can not find places to live at affordable prices.

Why has Barcelona’s Airbnb ban been challenged?

“We are convinced that EU law has not been respected,” Viktorija Molnar, Secretary General of the European Holiday Home Association (EHHA), said in a statement released on Wednesday.

“By submitting the EU complaint, we hope that the European Commission will take a step further and open a formal infringement procedure against Spain,” added Molnar, whose group represents short-term rental platforms like Airbnb and Expedia’s Vrbo.

The move follows legal concerns raised by the European Commission itself that restrictions brought in by the Spanish region were disproportionate to the aim of tackling housing shortages.

EHHA argues that “unjustified, disproportionate and unsuitable” restrictions breach the EU’s Services Directive, which regulates a swathe of activities from hotels to legal advice. They also said that claims about the impact of Airbnb on housing affordability are “politically inflamed”.

The lobby group may have support from the European Commission itself, whose officials wrote to Spanish authorities to protest the law in February according to a document seen by Euronews Travel.

“The Commission services consider that the restrictions laid down in [Catalonia’s] Decree-law 3/2023 are not suitable to attain the objective of fighting housing shortage and are disproportionate to that objective,” the document said.

Spanish authorities could have also considered less swingeing restrictions and hadn’t offered evidence that short-term rentals were responsible for housing market tensions, it added – noting that there were three times as many empty dwellings as tourist rental properties in Catalonia.

Barcelona is just one European holiday destinations trying to find ways to tackle overtourism.

Cities like Venice have banned cruise ships from stopping on their shores, Athens regularly restricts visitor numbers at the famous Acropolis and Amsterdam is moving its red light district out of the city centre to try and clean up its image.

How the European Commission is taking on holiday rentals

Brussels has already taken action to bring the sharing economy within the regulatory fold, offering new rights to platform workers and hiking value-added tax on short-term lets and ridesharing apps such as Uber.

But the issue could prove totemic for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – who has created the first-ever European Commissioner for Housing as part of her second mandate, set to take office within weeks.

She has told Denmark’s Dan Jørgensen to “tackle systemic issues with short-term accommodation rentals”, in a mission letter that handed him the housing brief alongside responsibility for energy policy.

A spokesperson for the Catalan government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

CORRECTION(20 November, 10:02): corrects spelling of Molnar’s name

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Microsoft pitches AI agents that can perform tasks on their own at annual Ignite event

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The move has been criticised by other tech companies who have branded Microsoft as being a “panic mode”.

In opening remarks to a company conference in the United States on Tuesday, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has set the stage for where the company is taking its artificial intelligence (AI) business.

AI developers are increasingly pitching the next wave of generative AI (GenAI) chatbots as AI “agents” that can do more useful things on people’s behalf.

But the cost of building and running AI tools is so high that more investors are questioning whether the technology’s promise is overblown.

Microsoft said last month that it’s preparing for a world where “every organisation will have a constellation of agents – ranging from simple prompt-and-response to fully autonomous”.

Microsoft elaborated in a blog post Tuesday that such autonomous agents “can operate around the clock to review and approve customer returns or go over shipping invoices to help businesses avoid costly supply-chain errors”.

Microsoft’s annual Ignite conference caters to its big business customers.

Microsoft criticised

The pivot toward so-called “agentic AI” comes as some users are seeing limits to the large language models behind chatbots like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Microsoft’s own Copilot.

Those systems work by predicting the most plausible next word in a sentence and are good at certain writing-based work tasks.

But tech companies have been working to build AI tools that are better at longer-range planning and reasoning so they can access the web or control computers and perform tasks on their own on a user’s behalf.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has criticized Microsoft’s pivot. Salesforce also has its “Agentforce” service that uses AI in sales, marketing, and other tasks.

“Microsoft rebranding Copilot as ‘agents’? That’s panic mode,” Benioff said in a social media post last month. He went on to claim that Microsoft’s flagship AI assistant, called Copilot, is “a flop” that is inaccurate and spills corporate data.

Author

  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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