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2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be ‘extremely active’ due to hotter oceans and La Niña

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This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with its April outlook.

The Americas have been told to brace for an ‘extremely active’ hurricane season this year.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) in the US are predicting 11 hurricanes in 2024, spurred on by a hotter Atlantic and a switch to ‘La Niña’ conditions.

This is the most hurricanes ever predicted by the expert unit since it began issuing an April outlook in 1995.

Researchers stress there’s still a high degree of uncertainty about how the season will unfold, but are urging residents along the US coastline and in the Caribbean to prepare.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” says Professor Michael Bell, one of the authors of this year’s forecast.

How will La Niña increase the chance of hurricanes?

There are two key factors behind the forecast for a particularly lively Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November.

The first is record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water, an active season is clearly on the cards. A warm Atlantic also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere: prime conditions for hurricanes.

We are currently emerging from an ‘El Niño’ phase; a naturally occurring seasonal climate phenomenon associated with surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño alone does not explain record high ocean temperatures around the world, however – especially not in the Atlantic. “Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said recently.

The second factor is that La Niña conditions are set to dominate by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October, according to the CSU researchers.

La Niña tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean. This results in reduced vertical wind shear (variation in wind speeds) which favours hurricane formation.

Given the combined signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has a “higher-than-normal confidence” at this time of year that America is in for a very active hurricane season.

23 named storms are predicted this year

In total, the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team is predicting that 23 named storms will strike during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Of those, researchers forecast 11 to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength – with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour (179 kph) or greater.

Looking back on decades of historical hurricane records, the experts have spotted some similarities to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020 seasons.

“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” says Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Before now, the highest number of hurricanes predicted in April was nine. This time last year six hurricanes were predicted. There ended up being seven; the most destructive of which was Hurricane Idalia – which made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida in August 2023, directly killing eight people and causing $3.6 billion (€3.3bn) in damage.

The researchers predict that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170 per cent of the average season from 1991–2020.

Where is most at risk from Atlantic hurricanes?

Coastal residents are, as usual, advised to take proper precautions.

The report calculates the probability of major hurricanes (category 3 or greater) making landfall in particular areas.

This year, there is a 62 per cent likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the entire US coastline, dropping to 34 per cent for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula.

For Caribbean residents, major hurricane chances stand at 66 per cent.

The team also provides probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles (80km) of: counties along the Gulf and US East Coast, hurricane-prone coastal states, Mexican states, Canadian provinces and countries in Central America and the Caribbean.

Considerable atmospheric changes can occur between April and peak season, and the forecast is only intended to provide a best estimate of activity. Further updates are due on 11 June, 9 July and 6 August.

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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World’s most powerful passport: Spain knocked off top spot by Asian nation

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Although Singapore is now in pole position, many European passport holders have impressive freedom of movement.

Singapore has risen to the top of a ranking of the world’s strongest passports, knocking Spain off the top spot.

Despite that blow for the country, European nations – including Spain, now relegated to second place – make up the rest of the top five.

VisaGuide.World’s ranking is seen as one of the most reliable within the travel industry, along with the Henley Passport Index.

The company evaluates 199 countries and territories globally and bases its results on factors including visa-free access, eVisas, and global mobility.

It then uses its own Destination Significance Score (DSS) to assign a unique value to each passport, although the DSS is not revealed in the ranking.

With this system, VisaGuide.World has found that the Singaporean passport is officially the strongest passport in the entire world – with a score of 91.27 out of a possible 100 as of September 2024.

Spain in second place, with a score of 90.60 is closely followed by France, whose score is 90.53.

Next up are the Italian and Hungarian passports, which come in with scores of 90.31 and 90.28 respectively.

It’s good news for Europe overall, with only one other country not on the continent, Japan, in the top 20. Japan takes 15th place, the same position as last year.

Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria round out the top 10 ranking.

How does VisaGuide.World rank passports?

Released four times a year, VisaGuide.World’s passport ranking examines the number of destinations passport holders can access without a visa. Henley, usually thought of as the authority, takes a similar approach but has yet to release its ranking for this quarter.

VisaGuide.World takes other factors into consideration, creating its DSS for each travel destination.

That score factors in the type of entry policy each country enforces on an individual passport. That encompasses visa-free entry, Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA), visa on arrival, e-Visas embassy approved visas, passport-free travel or banned entry.

This means the next ranking could look very different as Schengen countries introduce the Entry/Exit System (ETS) and ETIAS visa waiver for some non-EU countries and the UK rolls out its ETA.

The DSS also assigns points for the country’s GDP, global power and tourism development.

Not all of its criteria are considered equal, though. Visa-free access to a country with a high DSS earns a passport more points in the index than entry to a country with a low score.

The fact that VisaGuide.World does not specify the DSS of each country means that other factors may also affect the outcome of the index.

Why did Spain fall to second place in the ranking?

In VisaGuide.World’s last ranking, Spanish passport holders could travel visa-free to 160 countries and territories. In September’s results, that number has fallen to just 107.

It appears to be a drop across the board, though. Singaporean passport holders could previously visit 164 places without a visa but today, that only applies to 160.

While the ranking doesn’t explicitly say why this is the case, it is a regularly-changing figure due to shifting diplomatic ties, mutual visa policies, and the political and economic stability of countries and territories globally.

Spain, though, and all the European countries in the top 20 do have a benefit that Singapore doesn’t. Passport holders of these nations can travel to more than 30 countries without using their passports at all, thanks to the existence of the European Union and the Schengen zone.

For these citizens, travelling with just an ID card is possible, making freedom of movement simple.

With that in mind, perhaps the drop from top spot in this ranking won’t make too many Spanish citizens unhappy after all.

Author

  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Cruise caps and cutting off power: European cities get serious on overtourism

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Valencia, Budapest and Athens are all putting in place new legislation to tackle overtourism and illegal short-term accommodation.

As the main tourist season winds down, cities are putting in place legislation to control overtourism and crack down on badly-behaved visitors alongside landlords who run illegal accommodation.

Valencia in eastern Spain has announced its plans to cut off electricity and water for illegal tourist accommodation in the city.

The mayor, María José Catalá, believes that the providing of too much water and electricity to short-term lets has a serious impact on permanent residents.

Local media reported that she told the State of the City Debate the existence of tourist apartments “impacts the price of rents, displaces the population,… implies the gradual disappearance of local commerce in favour of shops for tourists, and implies an imbalance in public provisions” which favours tourists over locals.

Catalá appears to be taking the situation very seriously. On behalf of the city council, she has requested the power to sanction illegal tourist apartments, and impose fines of up to €600,000 on landlords who refuse to comply with the new laws.

Records show that, under Catalá, inspections of tourist apartments have increased by 454 per cent this year alone and that police activity against illegal tourist apartments has risen from 73 reports in 2022 to 449 so far in 2024. The closure of some 278 illegal residences has already been ordered this year.

Valencia is following in the footsteps of Seville

The move comes after the council of the southern Spanish city of Seville was told it was within its rights to cut off the water supply to illegal tourist accommodation.

Before the decision was made in late August, Seville had already disconnected the supply to six apartments which were found to be illegal.

While three of the owners appealed, the judge accepted the council’s argument that the apartments were not the owners’ residences, instead taking the sides of neighbours who had complained about noise.

Seville’s council believes there are some 5,000 illegal apartments in the city, in addition to 10,000 legally licenced ones.

Officials confirmed that the water supply would only be restored once the apartments have reverted back to being regular residences.

Tourism in Seville has boomed since the end of the COVID pandemic. The city of just 700,000 people has seen an influx of around 3.5 million visitors a year, most of them choosing to stay in the small historical centre.

Valencia is also considering restrictions on cruise ships in the city

Back in Valencia, and the mayor has also suggested that the city may move to change the rules on cruise ships docking there in the future.

Saying the issue of the boats “deserves reflection” Catalá floated the idea of “limiting and reducing the arrival of mega-cruise ships”.

She announced that there are plans in the works to set up a permanent group with members of the City Council, the Port Authority and the cruise sector “to regulate cruise traffic”.

“We want to design a shared social and environmental sustainability strategy for cruises and ensure quality cruise tourism, seeking the deseasonalisation of stopovers, the distribution of the flow of cruise passengers at the destination and planning,” she said.

Catalá also indicated her team will “prioritise those ships that use Valencia as a base port, that is, those that spend the night in the city and, therefore, that generate a greater economic impact and… seek quality tourism.”

Budapest plans to ban short-term rentals

Hungary’s capital is also cracking down on overtourism, and has just announced it will be banning all short-term rentals in the city.

Budapest residents narrowly voted to ban this form of accommodation – but it won’t come into effect until 1 January 2026.

It won’t be a sweeping measure, however.

From 2026, the ban will only affect one small part of Budapest, District VI, also known as Terézváros.

Despite its relative diminutive size, the ban will likely be felt with some significance as it’s one of the most densely populated areas of the city.

54 per cent of people living there voted in the affirmative on the ban and it’s now suggested it might be just the first of such decisions to be made.

Victor Orban’s government has reportedly been keen to put bans like this in place across the country.

Many people in Hungary are unhappy over short-term lets contributing to an ongoing housing shortage as well as unaffordability for local residents.

Athens will ban some new short-term lets from 2025

Greece’s capital has also announced its plans to ban new short-term lets from 1 January 2025, although the move only seems to be temporary at the moment.

Just one day after the Budapest decision, Greece’s government has announced it will stop issuing new short-term rental licences in the first, second and third municipal districts in the centre of Athens

For now, the restriction will only remain in place for 12 months.

After that period, authorities will take a close look at whether the ban has had enough of an impact on overtourism and the local housing situation before deciding whether or not to extend it.

Previously, the government had only wanted to test out the scheme for 90 days, but it was soon decided that would not have been long enough.

Instead, the year-long trial will apply to districts where short-term lets comprise more than 5 per cent of the total housing stock and, therefore, have a noticeable impact on the lives of residents.

Authorities in Athens will also work with landlords to encourage them to be more considerate to locals and the environment.

Athens tourist tax to rise

Following a summer of natural disasters related to climate change, the local government will impose a daily tax on short-term rentals to deal with the ongoing crisis.

During the busy April to October period, the tax will increase from the current €1.5 a day to €8.

In the low season, it will go up from €0.50 to €2 per day, according to news agency Reuters.

Despite overtourism and forest fires, which have seen countless evacuations, 2024 is set to be a record year for Greece in terms of tourism revenue. It’s expected the country’s income from the sector could reach up to €22 billion by the end of the year.

Such measures haven’t affected other European tourism hotspots too negatively in the recent past.

In August, following the lead of cities like London, Dublin, Amsterdam and Paris, the Czech capital announced it’s planning to limit the amount of short-term tourist accommodation available.

Prague’s authorities are hoping that the proposed move will bring down real estate prices – and ensure residents are not forced out by tourists.

Barcelona has gone one step further still.

The popular Spanish coastal city has announced plans which, it hopes, will eliminate all tourist rentals by 2028. Reaction has been mixed there, however, among local Catalans and the city’s large foreign-born population, which has now reached a significant 25 per cent.

Author

  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Want to explore Japan outside of Tokyo? This airline is offering free domestic flights

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Japan Airlines says the promotion is designed to provide a “seamless travel experience” across the archipelago.

Japan Airlines is offering some international travellers free domestic flights to explore more of the country.

The airline’s domestic network includes services to 64 airports on 133 routes. It hopes the free flights will encourage passengers to delve deeper into regions of Japan they wouldn’t normally explore.

That includes experiences like visiting Kyoto’s 17 UNESCO World Heritage Sites or getting away from the big city in the magical landscapes of Hokkaido in the north of the country. Or in Kagoshima, known as the gateway to Japan’s southern islands, you could experience some of the country’s top outdoor adventures.

Japan Airlines says the promotion is designed to provide a “seamless travel experience” across the archipelago.

It could also help to ease overtourism in some of the country’s most popular destinations – such as Mount Fuji, which has had to introduce entry fees and daily visitor caps to reduce crowding.

Earlier this year, surveys from more than 21 million passengers in 100 countries flying with more than 350 airlines named Japan Airlines as one of the best in the world.

How to get free domestic flights with Japan Airlines

The offer means you can get complimentary domestic flights if you book an international flight into the country with the airline. To qualify, both a Japan Airlines international flight and a matching domestic flight must be booked in the same reservation.

A stopover fee applies for passengers from the US, Canada, Mexico and China if they plan to stay in their first destination for more than 24 hours before travelling on.

Currently, the offer is only open to travellers from the US, Canada, Mexico and Thailand. It will open up for visitors from Singapore on 18 September, Australia and New Zealand on 19 September, Vietnam and the Philippines on 25 September and Indonesia, India, China and Taiwan on 27 September.

Japan Airlines also says it plans to expand the list of eligible countries later in September.

The offer also has a generous baggage allowance. If you purchase a Japan Airlines domestic flight fare from outside of Japan, economy class passengers can check in up to two pieces of luggage weighing up to 23 kg.

Author

  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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