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2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be ‘extremely active’ due to hotter oceans and La Niña

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This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with its April outlook.

The Americas have been told to brace for an ‘extremely active’ hurricane season this year.

Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) in the US are predicting 11 hurricanes in 2024, spurred on by a hotter Atlantic and a switch to ‘La Niña’ conditions.

This is the most hurricanes ever predicted by the expert unit since it began issuing an April outlook in 1995.

Researchers stress there’s still a high degree of uncertainty about how the season will unfold, but are urging residents along the US coastline and in the Caribbean to prepare.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” says Professor Michael Bell, one of the authors of this year’s forecast.

How will La Niña increase the chance of hurricanes?

There are two key factors behind the forecast for a particularly lively Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June to 30 November.

The first is record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water, an active season is clearly on the cards. A warm Atlantic also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere: prime conditions for hurricanes.

We are currently emerging from an ‘El Niño’ phase; a naturally occurring seasonal climate phenomenon associated with surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

El Niño alone does not explain record high ocean temperatures around the world, however – especially not in the Atlantic. “Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said recently.

The second factor is that La Niña conditions are set to dominate by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October, according to the CSU researchers.

La Niña tends to decrease upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean. This results in reduced vertical wind shear (variation in wind speeds) which favours hurricane formation.

Given the combined signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has a “higher-than-normal confidence” at this time of year that America is in for a very active hurricane season.

23 named storms are predicted this year

In total, the CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team is predicting that 23 named storms will strike during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Of those, researchers forecast 11 to become hurricanes and five to reach major hurricane strength – with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour (179 kph) or greater.

Looking back on decades of historical hurricane records, the experts have spotted some similarities to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020 seasons.

“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” says Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.

Before now, the highest number of hurricanes predicted in April was nine. This time last year six hurricanes were predicted. There ended up being seven; the most destructive of which was Hurricane Idalia – which made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida in August 2023, directly killing eight people and causing $3.6 billion (€3.3bn) in damage.

The researchers predict that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170 per cent of the average season from 1991–2020.

Where is most at risk from Atlantic hurricanes?

Coastal residents are, as usual, advised to take proper precautions.

The report calculates the probability of major hurricanes (category 3 or greater) making landfall in particular areas.

This year, there is a 62 per cent likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the entire US coastline, dropping to 34 per cent for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula.

For Caribbean residents, major hurricane chances stand at 66 per cent.

The team also provides probabilities of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes tracking within 50 miles (80km) of: counties along the Gulf and US East Coast, hurricane-prone coastal states, Mexican states, Canadian provinces and countries in Central America and the Caribbean.

Considerable atmospheric changes can occur between April and peak season, and the forecast is only intended to provide a best estimate of activity. Further updates are due on 11 June, 9 July and 6 August.

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Norway to introduce tourist tax amid record visitor numbers and overtourism concerns

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Norway is set to become the latest European destination to introduce a tourist tax to combat concerns about rising visitor numbers.

Lawmakers approved the new levy on Thursday, which allows municipalities to introduce a 3 per cent tax on overnight stays in “areas particularly affected by tourism”.

The law allows local authorities to apply the tax at their own discretion, and it will be added to accommodation charges. Authorities will also be allowed to adjust the percentage based on the season.

The funds raised by the tax will be used exclusively to improve tourism infrastructure projects that benefit both visitors and local people. Municipalities will have to demonstrate that their facilities are inadequate and have their plans approved by the government to spend the funds.

Cecilie Myrseth, Norway’s minister of trade and industry, said on social media that her government had reached a “historic agreement” to introduce a tourism tax that was “in line with what they have in the rest of Europe”.

The country is the latest in a string of European nations introducing or increasing visitor levies to tackle the growing problem of overtourism. A tax may also be applied to cruise ships that make stops in the country, particularly in areas that are most affected by overtourism.

Norway is experiencing a tourism boom

As tourists increasingly choose cooler, northern European destinations to get away from the heat, Norway has experienced a boom in visitor numbers.

Last year, a record-breaking 38.6 million people booked accommodation in the country. That includes more than 12 million overnight stays by foreign tourists – a 4.2 per cent increase from 2023.

Some previously quiet destinations have been overwhelmed, like the Lofoten islands, where eye-catching images of hiking trails posted on social media have led to an influx of visitors. With a population of 24,500 people distributed across several small towns and villages, keeping up with the cost of all these new visitors has been hard.

A recent survey by industry organisation Norwegian Tourism Partners found that 77 per cent of people in Tromsø, in northern Norway above the Arctic Circle, thought there were too many tourists there. Visitors have been drawn by the Northern Lights, wildlife excursions, Sami cultural experiences and what the city itself has to offer.

The increase in tourism has caused tension with local residents across Norway as infrastructure has struggled to keep up with the boom. Facilities like public toilets and car parks have been overwhelmed in popular destinations.

Some residents have even reported cases of people using their back gardens as toilets, and bemoaned the increased traffic clogging up Norway’s roads.

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Wildfire warnings issued in the Canary Islands as millions prepare to holiday there

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As millions of holidaymakers prepare to head to the Canary Islands this summer, authorities have issued a wildfire pre-alert across the archipelago.

The warning, announced by the General Directorate of Emergencies on Sunday, applies to tourist hotspots El Hierro, La Palma, La Gomera, Tenerife and Gran Canaria.

It comes as the islands enter a high-risk fire period following the wet season, as hot, dry winds known as the ‘calima’ begin blowing in from the Sahara Desert.

Fires are common, but they haven’t slowed tourism

The risk of wildfire is nothing new for the Canary Islands.

The volcanic terrain, Mediterranean climate and fire-adapted vegetation – plants that have evolved to thrive in fire-prone environments – make them susceptible to summer blazes, and scientists say wildfires are part of the archipelago’s ecological rhythm.

Some of the worst occurred in 2023, when forest fires ravaged Tenerife, destroying more than 15,000 hectares of land and forcing 12,000 people to evacuate. The blaze was later found to have been started by arsonists.

This year, officials are urging tourists and locals alike to take extreme caution, warning against launching fireworks near forests and discarding cigarettes on dry ground.

But even as the fire warnings roll in, the Canaries’ appeal shows no signs of slowing down.

In 2024, the islands welcomed nearly 18 million tourists, including a record-breaking 15.5 million international arrivals. Among them, British travellers led the way, recording 6.3 million visits – up 500,000 from 2023.

Concerns about overtourism mount amid record arrivals

While the Canary Islands continue to attract record numbers of tourists, residents are increasingly voicing concerns about overtourism.

In April 2024, tens of thousands of islanders participated in protests, holding signs that read “the Canary Islands have a limit” while rallying against rising housing costs, environmental damage and the strain on public services.

Over Easter this year, about 80,000 hospitality workers in Tenerife, La Palma, La Gomera and El Hierrowalked out in a dispute with unions over pay.

The surge in short-term rentals has been especially contentious. Locals have reported getting priced out of their neighbourhoods as properties are converted into holiday  lets, the cost of living soars and wages stagnate.

Despite these concerns, tourism remains a significant part of the Canary Islands’ economy, accounting for approximately 35 per cent of its GDP.

Tenerife still reigns supreme

After welcoming seven million tourists in 2024, Tenerife remains the most visited island.

Its year-round sunshine and wide beaches keep it a firm favourite among families, especially during the UK’s summer school break and throughout the winter months.

As the peak summer season picks up, local tourism boards have made no indication that the fire pre-alerts will disrupt travel plans.

But authorities remain focused on prevention this year.

More than 2,000 firefighters are on standby. Meanwhile, the government has distributed detailed safety advice, urging people to prepare a go-bag, stay informed and follow emergency evacuation or shelter-in-place instructions if fires erupt.

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  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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Violent turbulence hits Ryanair flight in Germany, forcing an emergency landing and injuring 9

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Severe storms in southern Germany forced a Ryanair flight to make an emergency landing late Wednesday after violent turbulence injured nine people on board, German police said in a statement Thursday.

The flight, travelling from Berlin to Milan with 179 passengers and six crew members, encountered turbulence so intense around 8:30 pm that the pilot was forced to make an unscheduled landing at Memmingen Airport in Bavaria.

Eight passengers and one crew member were hurt.

Three people were taken to the hospital in Memmingen for treatment; the other injured people were released after receiving outpatient treatment. As a precaution, all passengers were checked for injuries by the emergency services.

Authorities did not permit the plane to continue flying, and the airline arranged bus transport for passengers. Milan is about 380 kilometres south of Memmingen.

More bad weather expected in Germany

Elsewhere in the region, storms damaged several homes in Ulm, Baden-Württmberg, according to the German news agency dpa.

In the Donaustetten district, strong winds tore roofs off multiple row houses, rendering them uninhabitable, though no injuries were reported. Fire officials suspect a small tornado or waterspout caused the damage. The German Weather Service (DWD) is investigating, according to dpa.

Storm-related emergency calls also came from other areas in southern Germany, where damage was mostly limited to fallen trees and flooded basements.

The DWD warned of further storms on Thursday, 5 June, with hail, strong winds, and localised heavy rain expected.

Author

  • Daniela Daecher is a twenty-something bookworm and coffee addict with a passion for geeking out over sci fi, tv, movies, and books. In 2013 she completed her BA in English with a specialization in Linguistics. In 2014 she completed her MA in Linguistics, focusing on the relationship between language and communication in written form. She currently lives in Munich, Germany.

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