The Russian invasion revealed cracks in the foundations of the illiberal ranks. There is no unity among the leading politicians on the far-right when it comes to fundamental issues.

It has been revealed that there are still many differences in strategic culture. This is often reflected in surreal situations, akin to those in Kafka’s works. Now, the strained relationships manifests in the form of electricity cuts to a popular Polish Film Festival in Budapest, a Hungarian chief referring to Hitler’s invasion of Poland being a local conflict and a complete difference on the EU strategic autonomy.

In 2022, Viktor Orban, who had won his fourth consecutive term, was a pro-Russian politician with a message of appeasement, and showed a disregard for Ukrainian independence.

The same year, the Polish government was processing four to six millions refugees. Government officials, as well as Czech and Slovenian leaders were travelling to Kyiv by train, to show their support to their Ukrainian counterparts. The trip marked an end to the Budapest-Warsaw axis.

You can rest assured that Warsaw’s leaders were initially just catching up to the mood of the people at home, who would punish them if they maintained friendly relations with any pro Russian leader. They may have hoped that Orban, intoxicated with the allure of Budapest’s far right, would finally see the Kremlin’s aggressive actions against Ukraine for what they were.

Warsaw quickly discovered that their partner in crime meant business when he urinated into their common tent.

Blackout for Film Festival

A blackout interrupted the third day of the long-established Polish Film Spring festival in Budapest on 4 May. The energy provider E.ON shut off power to the Polish Institute, a cultural diplomacy branch of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Warsaw. Citing a contractual misunderstanding, this effectively shut down the third of a popular film festival in the heart of Budapest.

The director of the institute had signed the electricity contract in January, but somehow the company had lost the agreement contract. It did not bother to notify or call any Polish diplomats prior to cutting them off.

This incident could have been considered unrelated if not for the corrupt and coercive practices in Hungary that extend from local media and businesses to major corporations. The shadow of the Hungarian government spreads across the political culture like cancer. After 12 years of absolute control, the Hungarian regime has enabled the most sinister voices to be heard, not at the fringes but in the middle of the policy debate.

Gabor Borondi (the new chief of Hungarian Defence Forces General Staff) made a shocking statement on morning television on 9 May, a day that only Moscow and Minsk consider as victory over Hitler. “Let’s remember the Second World War. In 1939, the German-Polish War began as a local conflict. What was the outcome? This escalation could not be contained by a timely peace process. It led to the Second World War.

Warsaw was furious and the PiS government felt betrayed.

‘Stab the back’

Its anti-German tirades in the election year are meant to position its vision of Poland as a true heir of European Heritage defended from barbarian hordes of the east and west. Orban’s man stabbed Kaczynski by calling the 1939 war, which was meant to eliminate Poland’s population, a local conflict. No wonder the Polish ambassador retaliated with public comments that were not so diplomatic, causing Budapest to cave in and apologize.

Orban’s obsession with Hitler was a part of his cultural DNA. He was accused of Nazi-like propagandists many times, but he went too far when he compared Adolf Hitler’s plans for European “unity” to the EU’s vision of an “ever closer union” in a speech in Veszprem, west of Hungary on 12 May.

You can rest assured that the Hungarian politician knows how to stir up controversy, but he still probably distinguishes between truth and lies. It’s just that, as time goes by, his supporters are more likely to forget or reject the facts in order to align themselves with the nonsense he repeats in order to maintain power. This poses greater risks to the strategic culture that is currently being fostered in Hungary.

Hungary is no longer a strategic ally for Poland.

In general, Poland fully backs Ukraine by giving its arsenal away and borrowing money to buy all rolling and flying equipment, as well as sailing and sailing gear. However, it makes little effort to establish a collaboration with Germany.

Hungary is simultaneously paying lip service to Nato’s enemies while quietly building up German ammo and tank factories, preparing to exploit the drive for strategic independence.

Orban, like Putin or Xi Jinping often refers to the strategic autonomy of the EU in awe. All three call for greater European autonomy from the US. They do so explicitly and implicitly, relying on old De Gaulle ghosts that Emmanuel Macron sometimes endorses.

Hungarian global plot has made Poland weary. Poland accepts an open strategic autonomy in principle, but only if European capability to deliver within Nato is increased, and the US is on board. In the illiberal game, Poland is already outmanoeuvred, and its every move has been tainted with Budapest’s gambit.

What started in 2015 as a friends-with-benefits relationship between Orban and Kaczynski, for Poland and Hungary, ends with disgust and enmity, which will not be overcome until both leaders leave.