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The Fight To Fix The “rigged” Financial System Requires A Strong African Voice.

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“The financial system, to put it bluntly is rigged against Global South,” said William Ruto, president of Kenya, at the Mo Ibrahim Governance hosted in Nairobi, last week.

He was referring the fact that poorer countries pay higher borrowing costs – often between 10 and 20%, instead of just a bit over zero – which hampers their ability to cope with other crises like climate change.

“At 10, 12 or 15 percent, it becomes impossible. “It is impossible to address our development needs with the financial resources available from this architecture,” said he.

The annual event, named after its founder, the Sudanese billionaire Mo Ibrahim, who was also the interviewer of the event, has become a forum for African leaders, allowing them to speak openly about the challenges that face African development and global finance failures.

Ruto said, “It’s our responsibility to engineer this conversation and put forward a view on a financial system which works for everyone.” To increase Africa’s presence on the world stage, African leaders agreed that the African Union Chair and a small group of AU Commissioners would represent Africa in meetings with foreign leaders. “It’s not intelligent” for all 54 African heads of state to travel to the US and Japan to meet with a “single” foreign leader to discuss bilateral relations. “Sometimes, we are crammed into buses like schoolchildren. It is not right.

Despite admitting that many African leaders are reluctant to “relinquish”, sovereignty to the AU – “we can’t support Somalia with $85,m,” he said – the push to unite on the global stage is gaining momentum. African finance ministers demanded recently that the African Union be confirmed a full G20 member before the end the year.

The IMF and World Bank Annual Spring Meeting in Washington in April also laid out a 5-point plan for global financial Reform, including a call for more low-interest loan, to unlock IMF’s unused reserves for poor countries, and a solution to the EUR3,9 trillion in debt that hangs over the developing world.

The treatise is a part of an international push to reform the global financial system. It is too complex to cover it all at once so we will focus on two aspects, debt and borrowing.

Worst debt crises in a generation

The cost of borrowing, and therefore the interest payments to service debt, is one of the biggest issues facing poor countries. This is not a problem limited to the African continent.

According to World Bank statistics, 60 percent of developing countries — which represents 40 percent of global GNP — are at risk of defaulting loans. In practice, this means bankruptcy. Marcello Estevao is the global director of macroeconomics for the World Bank. He recently described it as “the worst debt crises in a generation.”

In February, the IMF, World Bank, Blackrock and other large private creditors, as well as bilateral lenders, debtor countries, launched the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. The goal is to find a transparent and predictable way to deal the debt relief for countries that have defaulted.

There is no standard way to deal with debt in the world today. After the pandemic the Group of 20 (G20), wealthy countries launched a “common framework” for debt resolution, but it has failed to bring together all creditors.

It is important to resolve debt problems quickly because countries in default are unable pay civil servants’ salaries, pay for healthcare services and generally perform their state roles.

Since defaulting, at least seven of the 21 countries in trouble have waited more than a full year for a deal. The Annual Spring Meeting was a high point in these negotiations, as for the first time debtor countries — Ecuador and Ethiopia, Ghana, Sri Lanka Suriname and Zambia — were given a prominent place at the table.

But trying to find progress in these talks was not the point. Yes, the World Bank has pledged to release additional lending worth EUR5bn per year and yes, there have been some improvements in the disagreements between China, the West and others (more about that later). But poor countries must raise EUR2.5 Then, you can get a better understanding of the trillions of dollars Just to pay back creditors, it will take five years.

David McNair, Executive Director of the ONE Campaign, a global campaign against poverty, said that the Roundtable’s solutions are “a drop in the ocean”.

Let’s put this statement into concrete numbers: According to the World Bank Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, spent 96 percent of its total revenues on foreign investors. Pakistan, which suffered the worst floods in recorded history and whose reconstruction costs are estimated at EUR30bn – exceeding its annual budget – spends 50% of its budget to pay off debt. As does Egypt.

“Whatever we decide, our economy is shrinking and debt is increasing.” Imran Khan, former Prime Minister of Pakistan, told the Financial Times that his party has begun to believe that it is stuck.

Bickering at the Table

When debt servicing costs were so high in the ‘lost decades’ of the 1990s 60 to 80 percent had to be canceled. Many NGOs are calling for this. “Without debt cancellation Southern debts will continue rising,” said Mae Buenaventura, of Debt Justice, an advocacy group based in the UK.

Researchers from a collaboration including the Boston University Global Development Policy Center published a report on Tuesday that, for the 61 countries facing debt distress, it is necessary to restructure more than EUR740bn — jargon meaning cancellation or delayed repayment — across all creditor classes.

The financial system is much more complex today than it was in the 1990s. Politics has become more volatile, and debt restructuring negotiations have stalled with the defaulted countries.

What has changed is that debts are no longer owed exclusively to western countries or multilateral development bank, but to private creditors such as Blackrock and to new big players like China and India.

Every debt restructuring is therefore also deeply geopolitical. China’s insistence on the IMF and World Bank taking a cut in the event of a debt restructuring nearly derailed roundtable discussions. China eventually relented but the lack of cooperation between great powers is slowing the process, to the detriment for debtor countries.

Highest returns in the World

Private creditors now account for 60 percent of the total debt of African countries, compared to almost nothing in 1990. Negotiations with private creditors are more difficult because they are less willing to accept a haircut, and because there are many of them.

“Who are you speaking with, do you know?” “There are thousands of investors, and you can’t bring them all into a room and have a conversation with them,” Gyude, Moore, former Liberian minister of work and now senior policy analyst at Center for Global Development in Washington, told EUobserver.

Officials from debtor nations are reluctant to contact private creditors directly for fear of being branded as bad investments. “Private capital is an important part of the building of African infrastructure, and it holds 60 percent our debt. They don’t want private creditors to be burned,” he said.

Investors are guided by the opinions on the creditworthiness of sovereign debt by rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s, and the threat of being downgraded is always present in the minds of African policymakers–because higher perceived risk means even higher borrowing costs. Kenyan President Ruto has been working to change the current system.

Moore says that African leaders shouldn’t be afraid to start debt restructuring discussions with private investors, as this offers them transparency, which could ultimately lead to a better deal. “We need to bring private investors in much earlier. African countries have let the Americans, Germans and World bank speak for them. I think that’s a mistake.”

Moore also says that African countries should directly engage with China to resolve its debt problems. Moore said that China has a good working relationship with nearly all African countries.

If you’re wondering if debt restructuring is a bad idea for investors, African countries pay an extra EUR68bn in borrowing costs per year above what is economically sensible. This amount is more than twice as much as the total amount of aid that has been given to the continent.

Researchers Josefin Meyer and Carmen M Reinhart found that the real returns on bonds issued by developing countries were high enough to compensate for risk. Over the past two centuries, real returns have averaged more than 6 percent per year.

An investment in Egyptian debt earned investors an average annual return of 6.9 percent over the entire period. This was despite defaults and major wars as well as global crises. The average return on Nigerian debt was 13,6 percent.

As Ruto said Saturday: “We are confident that Africa has the highest returns on investment in the entire world.”

I cry for Zambia

It’s clear why debtors should have a voice in resolving debt problems.

Anna Gelpern, Georgetown University professor and expert in law, said that “drowning” in debt is not a real problem but a challenge of financial engineering.

Africa, on the other hand, cannot create EUR1800bn to swap for dollars. It is not easy to change the plumbing in the financial system. At the very least, it would require a shift in power when discussing financial reform.

The Roundtable’s power dynamics is still heavily skewed in favor of creditors. “It was a no-match really.” “Debtors were present, but their influence on the negotiations was minimal,” Aldo Calidari, senior director of Jubilee Network USA (a global NGO) who attended the Washington proceedings told EUobserver.

The IMF’s move to austerity overshadowed the little that was achieved at the Roundtable. In a widely-shared chapter of its World Economic Outlook, the fund urged indebted nations to cut public spending in order to reduce debt.

Although the fund admitted austerity “on the average” does not reduce debt, it encouraged nations to do so because it helps restore financial stabilty (prices) within the global financial system. But this doesn’t help countries in debt trouble.

Zambia has waited two and a quarter years to resolve its default on EUR17.3bn of debt after its finances collapsed in the Covid-19 Crisis. The IMF approved a EUR1.2bn bailout back in November. But the conditions were strict. The Zambian government was forced to agree to reduce fuel subsidies and small farmer subsidies, on which hundreds of thousands rely. IMF recommends higher electricity tariffs and VAT to increase revenue.

The cost of this would be borne primarily by the people. Grieve Chelwa wrote on his blog, Africa Watch, at the time, “I cry for the Zambia I love.” “This is austerity.”

In Chapter 3 of its World Economic Outlook the IMF acknowledged that some countries in acute debt distress will need “substantial debt reduction or rapid debt relief.” Debt resolution talks are moving slowly, and there is no solution in sight.

While countries like Zambia, Chad and Ethiopia will have to wait, many others will also have to wait. Zambia is still waiting on its bailout money today because creditors who cannot agree on the details of restructuring have blocked the process.

The system is rigged

Martin Guzman, former Argentine Minister of Economy, said in a recent interview that it is “essential” for understanding the debt dynamics in Global South to examine the monetary policy in North.

During the pandemic period, government debt grew by almost EUR1.8 trillion (excluding China) in more than 100 developing nations. Social spending increased while incomes were frozen due to lockdowns.

Guzman stated that central banks are focused on financial stabilization and “do not consider the international spillovers” of their actions. But the effects are significant for developing countries.

The steepest increase in interest rates in the history central banking by the US Fed and ECB was what pushed many to the edge last year. High interest rates increase food prices on the global markets, which is especially bad for sub-Saharan African countries where up to 85 percent of their food is imported.

According to the IMF’s own estimates, 340 million people are expected to go hungry this coming year. The fund has committed $13.2bn to countries affected by global food crises since February 2022. Of that amount, $3.7bn had been disbursed by March 2023.

The fact that 35 percent (of the debt) of poor countries is taken out at variable rates (as compared to debt in wealthy nations, which is fixed for years or decades) exacerbates the problem. This means that existing debts are subject to sudden cost increases when the Fed or ECB raises interest rates.

Mia Mottley said, “What is good for North, East, and West, is also good for South, East, and West.” She has been a strong voice for financial reform. “Cheap lending is the best strategy for developing countries.”

At the annual meeting, the IMF argued for higher interest rates. In a speech given at the Annual Meeting, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, said that interest rates were “bearing fruit” in reference to lower inflation. He added that financial instability had been “well contained.”

Does it make sense to conclude that risks are contained when 60 percent of developing countries — 40 percent of global economy — are facing bankruptcy?

A strong African voice

Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, wrote in February that there is a worrying tendency in the international community to view debts in developing countries as sustainable, because they can be paid back after some sacrifice. “This is a full blown development crisis, with debt distress as its core [and it] “A new lost decade is looming for a large part of the global economy.”

Jason Braganza said, “I think this conversation needs to be humanised very, very urgently,” at an event hosted by the World Bank. “We must move away from short term crisis management that favors creditors.”

How? Moore told Euobserver that “Africa must unite behind a common agenda on debt relief” to break the impasse. “We know what China, the US, and the World Bank want, but we do not know what Africa wants.”

Moore supports the proposal of Development Reimagined (a consultancy group working on China-Africa issues) to create a borrowers group as a counterpart to creditor group like the Paris Club. “The Paris Club represents a group of creditors who speak with one voice.” Moore said it was odd that a similar system didn’t exist for borrowing.

A stronger, more focused African Union would be able to move the needle towards debtor countries. Debates are now dominated by creditor nations and private investor interest. “If 54 African leaders continue to come to these meetings with 54 different agendas, they will not go back with much. “The size of your economy determines the power of your voice,” he said. “African leaders can achieve more if they work together.”

Moore added, “It is only logical that the AU has a permanent voice at the G20.” “Things do not always happen in the world because they make sense, but I am cautiously hopeful.”

The next big finance event will be held in Paris in June. Debt sustainability and cheap (climate-friendly) lending will again be at the top of the agenda.

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Shadows Over Democracy in Mozambique

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In a deeply concerning development in Mozambique’s political landscape, the European Union (EU) has condemned the recent killings of two prominent figures: Elvino Dias, a legal advisor to Presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, and opposition politician Paulo Guambe. The EU stated that these politically motivated murders have no place in a democracy and expressed its heartfelt condolences to the families and friends of the deceased.

The EU’s strong condemnation comes in the wake of alarming reports regarding the violent dispersal of political supporters following last week’s elections in Mozambique. The Union has called for an immediate, thorough, and transparent investigation into the killings, demanding justice for those responsible and clarity on the circumstances surrounding these outrageous crimes. The EU reiterated its hope for a timely response from the Mozambican Government, emphasizing that a quick and effective inquiry is essential to restore public confidence.

In addition to seeking accountability for the murders, the EU has urged all parties to exercise restraint during this turbulent post-electoral period. The organization underlined the importance of respecting fundamental freedoms and political rights, asserting that strong protective measures for all candidates are crucial to ensuring their safety and fostering a more stable political environment.

Meanwhile, the European Union Election Observation Mission remains actively engaged in Mozambique, closely assessing the ongoing electoral process. The EU expects the country’s Election Management Bodies to uphold integrity in their operations, ensuring that the electoral process is conducted with due diligence and transparency—reflecting the will of the Mozambican people.

As the nation grapples with the implications of these political killings, the international community watches closely, hoping for accountability, peace, and the preservation of democratic values in Mozambique.

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The European Union and Morocco: Navigating Trade Relations and Geopolitical Issues

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The European Union and the Agreements with Morocco: An In-Depth Analysis of Recent Developments

The European Union (EU) has recently taken crucial decisions regarding its fisheries and agriculture agreements with Morocco, a matter that raises complex economic, political and legal issues. These agreements, which allow European vessels access to Moroccan waters and facilitate the import of Moroccan agricultural products into the European market, are essential for both parties. However, they are also marked by tensions linked to the Western Sahara issue.

Legal background to the agreements

The fisheries and agriculture agreements between the EU and Morocco have been renewed several times since they were first signed. However, their legitimacy has been called into question, notably following rulings by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). In 2016, the CJEU annulled a fisheries agreement, arguing that it failed to comply with international law, particularly with regard to the rights of the Saharan people. The Court stressed that the resources of Western Sahara cannot be exploited without the consent of its people, leading to a re-evaluation of existing agreements.

Morocco’s position and international support

Morocco has championed an autonomy initiative for Western Sahara, proposing a solution that would allow the territory to enjoy a degree of autonomy while remaining under Moroccan sovereignty. This initiative has received the support of over 100 nations, including major geopolitical players such as the United States, France, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Germany and Spain. This international support is crucial for Morocco, as it strengthens its position on the international stage and enables it to legitimize its actions regarding the Western Sahara.

Morocco maintains that the proposed autonomy is the best solution for ensuring stability and development in the region. The Moroccan authorities maintain that this initiative could encourage dialogue and cooperation between the various stakeholders, while guaranteeing respect for the rights of local populations.

Reactions from the Polisario Front

In contrast, the Polisario Front, which claims independence for Western Sahara and is supported by Algeria, advocates a referendum on self-determination for the Saharan people. This position has historically enjoyed some international support, but is currently less popular in the current geopolitical context.

The difficulties of implementing a referendum are manifold. Analysts point out that issues such as voter registration, factional tensions and security concerns make it a complex option. Moreover, international support for the Polisario Front has waned in recent years, further complicating its position.

Economic consequences of the agreements

The fisheries and agriculture agreements are of vital importance to the Moroccan economy. The fishing industry, in particular, is an essential source of income and employment, especially in coastal regions. Access to the European market enables Moroccan fishermen to sell their products at a competitive price, while meeting the growing demand for seafood products in Europe.

At the same time, the agricultural agreement also opens up opportunities for Morocco to export agricultural products, promoting the development of Moroccan agriculture. For the EU, these agreements guarantee a stable supply of food products while supporting sustainable fishing, which is crucial in the context of growing concerns about food security in Europe.

Future challenges

The challenges facing the EU and Morocco are many. The need to reconcile economic interests with the requirements of international law and humanitarian concerns is paramount. The situation in Western Sahara continues to be a sticking point influencing EU negotiations and decisions.

The EU seeks to maintain advantageous trade relations with Morocco while respecting the principles of international law. The complexity of this situation calls for continuous and constructive dialogue between the various parties, in order to find lasting solutions that are acceptable to all.

Future prospects

In the future, the EU may consider modifications to its agreements to ensure their compliance with international legal standards while safeguarding its economic interests. Enhanced dialogue between the EU and Morocco will be essential to navigate these complexities. Morocco’s international support could also play a key role in future discussions, influencing EU decisions.

In summary, the EU’s decision on fisheries and agriculture agreements with Morocco represents a delicate balance between economic interests, legal considerations and humanitarian issues. Future discussions will need to take these various aspects into account to achieve sustainable solutions, while recognizing the international context that shapes this dynamic. The future of EU-Morocco relations will depend on the ability of both parties to overcome current challenges and cooperate constructively for the development of the region.

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The Impact of Political Leadership on Economic Development in Nigeria

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By Emmanuel Ande Ivorgba, PhD. Executive Director, Centre for Faith and Community Development (CFCD)

INTRODUCTION

The traditional concept of leadership is based on the notion that leaders are selected to command control and make final decisions for the collective group. However, through this viewpoint, leadership is viewed not only as an exercise of authority but also on the legal grounds. As societies become more complex, technical demands of the state grow, and decision authority becomes specialized. We are more naturally concerned with what leaders do with the job, and what they are and their behavior. In a country of high-rank public-private sector bureaucracy, leaders at different management hierarchical levels play a major role in shaping the direction of political life. They contribute to our understanding about the role of political leadership in policy formulation.

Nigeria, with its vast amount of natural resources, is currently undergoing rapid economic decline. There is a high incidence of poverty, escalating inflation, balance of payment problems, as well as heavy debt-servicing problems. The root cause of this economic problem stems from the pursuit of an inappropriate economic policy. The dominance of poor leadership in policy formulation in Nigeria can clearly be identified as the main source of the problems. Political leadership is pivotal and significant in shaping the economic landscape of any nation (Klarin, 2020). The quality of any nation’s political leadership can significantly determine or influence such nation’s overall economic development trajectory. Nigeria is blessed with a vibrant human population, abundance of natural resources. These resources, coupled with the great entrepreneurial spirit and resilience of the citizens, have positioned Nigeria as a potential continental economic powerhouse. Unfortunately, and disappointedly so, weak institutional frameworks, coupled with corruption, policy inconsistencies and other numerous governance challenges, have constituted stumbling blocks to the country’s inability to effectively and efficiently harness its economic potential (Ogunleye & Adeleye, 2018).

Economic development is a measure of the increase of per capita income, which is itself, a function of the growth rate of national income (Mankiw & Taylor, 2014). National income growth depends largely on, political leadership stability as well as the appropriate economic policies implemented by the political leadership. Also, insights into the influence of political leadership on the socio-economic development enable one to understand the roots of the poverty trap in which many developing nations are stuck. Understanding why countries have the type of leaders they do have and what determines a politician to govern well or govern poorly help us appreciate the positions of governance. This paper seeks to explore the intricate and dynamic relationship between political leadership and economic development in Nigeria. The paper will briefly examine the historical context, challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s economic landscape, key policy decisions, and governance structures to unravel the impact of political leadership on key economic indicators such as job creation, infrastructure development, poverty alleviation, GDP growth, and foreign direct investment. The paper will provide insights into how effective leadership can catalyze positive economic transformation and propel inclusive growth and development in Nigeria. BACKGROUND With a human population of over 230 million, and rich in natural resources, Nigeria, popularly referred to as the “Giant of Africa” (UK Essays, 2018), and continental powerhouse (Akindele, et al. 2012), holds vast potential for economic growth and development. Despite this abundance of human and natural resources, the country has faced numerous complex challenges and struggles on its path to economic prosperity. Nigeria has experienced significant political, social, and economic changes since its independence from British colonial rule in 1960. Political leadership continues to play a central role in Nigeria’s fate. In general, the effects of political stability on economic development underscore the fact that political opportunities drive the economic policies in countries, especially those that are external as opposed to internal factors. The effectiveness of political leadership in providing the best opportunities for economic policies is also important because the nature of the stability is driven by how the political market works in various countries. Overall, many different types of political markets lead to different types of policy commitments. The impact of political leadership attributes is manifested through varying degrees of political stability, democratization, income inequality, and governance quality. The historical context of Nigeria’s economic development efforts has been shaped by a complex interplay of factors. These include the legacies of the colonial era, post-independence governance structures, the discovery of oil and Nigeria’s dependence on oil, political instability and social inequalities, among others. The country has experienced long periods of military rule, and military coups, disrupting democratic processes, with profound repercussions on economic management and policy consistency. While the discovery of oil in commercial quantities in the 1950s provided a unique opportunity for the transformation of Nigeria’s economy and acceleration of the development process, the country’s over-reliance and dependence on oil revenues, and neglect of particularly, manufacturing and agriculture, exposed the country’s economy to external shocks and volatility. This has been further compounded by the mismanagement of oil revenues and the absence of, or lack of diversification. Different administrations and political leaders in Nigeria, have implemented several economic policies that have generated both positive and negative impacts on the nation’s economy. Additionally, the socio-political dynamics coupled with regional disparities, ethno-religious tensions, poverty, youth unemployment, among others, underscore the multidimensional complexities that Nigeria’s political leaders must address in order to foster inclusive and sustainable national economic growth. POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN NIGERIA From the beginning, the political leadership has been infused with a degree of military dominance and military interests. Their unwillingness to relinquish control of governance and the economy exposed Nigeria’s leadership to ineffective policies that advocate autocracy, preserve tradition, uphold the old methods instead of developing creative and entrepreneurial elements to thrive when addressing economic development and socio[1]economic change. Political leadership in Nigeria is primarily dedicated to self-interests and strategies. This inadequacy largely refuses them from seeing the need for Nigeria to devise and implement the strategic economic development policies rather than the traditional growth-based doctrines provided and promoted by international economic analysts and international economic ideologues. The autocratic policy models are directed at reinforcing figureheads and also provide ‘cocktail’ solutions primarily to maintain political rivalry. As a result, policy leadership evolves less in the way of the country’s economic and social development. An important characteristic of Nigeria’s political leadership is the role of ethnic and religious affiliations in shaping political alliances and power structures. Ethno-religious dynamics and blocs have played a significant role in determining political outcomes and leadership appointments (Akande, 2016). This has often resulted in a fragmented political landscape, with leaders often prioritizing the interests of their own ethnic or religious groups over those of the nation as a whole. Also, the legacy of military rule has had a lasting impact on Nigeria’s political leadership. Many former military leaders have transitioned into civilian politics, bringing with them a hierarchical and authoritarian style of leadership that has at times undermined democratic principles (Ojo, 2017). This has contributed to a culture of strongman politics, where leaders often centralize power and suppress dissent to maintain control. There have been efforts, in recent years, to reform the country’s political leadership and improve governance standards, through initiatives such as anti-corruption campaigns and electoral reforms, to address some of the challenges facing the country’s leadership (Adesina, 2020). However, progress in this direction has been very slow, and entrenched power structures continue to pose obstacles to meaningful change. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW In analyzing how political leaders influence economic performance in Nigeria, one should be cognizant of the fact that it is the interaction of the political elite with the economic cycle that provides insight into how political institutions mediate the influence of the political elite on the economy. Nigerian society has experienced considerable political upheaval. Income inequality has increased since the 1960s, and democratic political structures have not been effectively adapted to reflect the changes in social structures influenced by modernization. The erratic progress of democracy in Nigeria and its inability to cope with the pressures of rapid modernization have led to an erosion of belief in the efficacy of the social system. Decades of authoritarian or military rule in Nigeria have had a negative impact on the quality of governance and the standard of living of most Nigerians. Nigeria’s economic development has been greatly influenced by a variety of historical, social, and political factors, including pre-colonial trade, colonial exploitation, post-independence policies, and the oil boom. In the pre-colonial period, several thriving economies with very extensive trade networks existed. For example, the Yoruba city- states existed in the southwest, the Benin Kingdom in the southeast and the Hausa kingdoms in the north, engaged in agriculture and craft production, and traded, not only among themselves, but with coastal and trans-Saharan traders (Falola & Heaton, 2008). Then came the Colonial Era, which lasted from 1861-1960, and significantly altered Nigeria’s economic landscape. During this period, the British concentrated on extraction and exportation of raw materials to feed the European Industrial Revolution. The economy was designed to produce cash crops like groundnuts, palm oil, cocoa and others to serve British interests (Ake, 1981). The Post-Independence Industrialization period, from 1960-1970 sought to transform the colonial economic structure and accelerate Nigeria’s industrial development (Ekundare, 1973). Economic development plans were then designed by the government to promote and support the diversification of the country’s economy from agriculture towards industrialization and infrastructural development. This was followed, in the 1970s, by the period of Nigeria’s Oil Boom, where the problem of the country was not money but how to spend it. Oil contributed about 90% of foreign exchange earnings and over 80% of government revenues. The result was increased urbanization and investments in the development of infrastructure, but agriculture and other sectors were practically neglected (Osoba, 1996). With support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria adopted the Structural Adjustment Program in 1986. This was in response to the challenges of rising debt and falling oil prices. An important goal of the SAP was to liberalize Nigeria’s economy, support private enterprise and minimize state involvement. However, the immediate social impact of the SAP was increased poverty and inequality (Iyoha & Oriakhi, 2002). In 2004, the Nigeria launched the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS), focusing on poverty reduction, economic diversification and infrastructure development. The NEEDS focused on the promotion of good governance practices, private sector participation, and social development programs (Soludo, 2017). the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) was launched in 2007 by the government to support and boost agriculture, manufacturing and services (Kalejaiye & Aliyu, 2013). Another policy, the Vision 2020 Agendafollowed in 2009. The goal of the Vision 2020 was to position Nigeria as one of the top 20 economies in the world by 2020. It focused on key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, and called for investment in human capital development and infrastructure (Ibrahim, 2020). Since 1990 to date, the country has witnessed a mixture of economic growth and setbacks. While there has been some form of stability in terms of democratic governance and political stability, corruption-induced challenges, the lack of economic diversification away from oil and lack of basic infrastructure still remain.

The influence of political leadership on the economy has been evident in various policies, decisions, and actions taken by those in power. One key example of this can be seen in their management of the country’s vast natural resources, particularly oil. Nigeria is a major oil producer, and the country’s political leaders have often used revenue from the oil sector to fund government programs and projects. Unfortunately, mismanagement, corruption, and lack of diversification have led to a situation where the economy remains heavily reliant on oil, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices (Oyekola, 2015). In order to attract investments and spur economic development, sound economic policies, infrastructural development and regulatory frameworks are very essential. However, political instability, policy inconsistency, and corruption have often deterred investors, leading to suboptimal economic performance (Onyishi, 2018). Also, decisions in respect to government spending, currency stability, taxations and interest rates, are important factors that influence economic performance. Purposeful and effective political leadership in these areas can lead to sustainable economic growth, while poor decisions, as Nigeria’s experience has shown, exacerbate economic challenges(Akinbobola, 2019).

Nigeria has just as much potential as almost any other developed country and can show the same improvement if their government becomes truly transparent and accountable, focusing on creating a conducive enabling environment for organizing Nigerian civil society to generate growth. The importance of political instability and poor governance to the decline of Nigeria’s business climate is not limited to discouraging large foreign investors, but it also affects small and medium-sized businesses. Banks are also affected in several ways by the political instability and poor governance of the country. Political instability contributes to a high-risk credit market and reduced access to credit for the private sector. The financial sector is one area in which scientific and internal market work can be done to establish how poor governance affects Nigeria’s economy.

POLITICAL ECONOMY THEORIES

The literature on political economy (Mills, 2005) as well as political business cycle theory (Nordhaus & William, D, 1975) is rich with reasons why politicians in particular would want to shape economies. They have incentives to gain from various forms of rent seeking. Classical and neoliberal economists have come up with mechanisms through which leaders can manipulate areas of the economy to stay in power. Politicians also agree to a social contract with citizens to provide public goods in return for a mandate to govern. There are incentives for politicians to supply public goods to maintain power. Politicians may choose to use economic policy to expand a country’s productive capacity or improve national welfare as part of their stewardship. This may involve providing an enabling environment where the private sector flourishes and produces many desirable goods and services. Politicians can also manipulate the economy by trading off some economic policy in exchange for political survival. Political leaders remain the most important economic agents whose intentions to grow the economy can impact on aggregate productivity and improve economic outcomes.

Political economy theories offer insights into the complex interplay of institutions, interests and power, as well as different perspectives on the relationship between economics and politics. Some key political economy theories include:

a. The Classical Political Economy Theory, which began around the 18th and 19th centuries, was very prominent and promoted by great thinkers and renowned economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo, among others. The classical political economy theory emphasizes minimal government intervention, free markets and self-interests in driving economic outcomes. Proponents of the classical political economy theory believe that overall economic prosperity through the invisible hand mechanism (Smith, 1776), would result from self-interest.

b. The Marxist Political Economy Theory: Developed by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, the Marxist political economy theory deals with the relationship between social classes, labour and capital. The foundation of this theory is that capitalism is inherently exploitative, hence proponents of Marxist political economy theory advocate for the overthrow of the capitalist system (Marx, 1867), and the establishment of a classless society rooted in the common ownership of th means of production.

c. The Institutional Political Economy Theory: The Institutional Political Economy Theory is described as a fusion of economic analysis with political science and sociological insights, in order to properly examine how economic behaviour and outcomes are shaped by institutions. The theory highlights the significance and influence of formal and informal rules and norms, including power structures in economic decision-making (North, 1990). Institutions have the capacity to either promote or hinder economic development and social welfare.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Economic growth is a significant contributor and necessary component of economic development. Economic development is the creation of enabling conditions that promote and stimulate rapid and substantial increase in the basic material well-being of the majority. This is achievable by the implementation of political leadership policies to promote economic growth through land reforms, capital intensive industrialization, educational stimulus and effective public health system. Economic development must be measured through such areas as the reduction in the opportunities for malnutrition, the considerable reduction in high infant mortality rates, the availability of potable water, the availability of access to quality educational material, the growth of public health, greater opportunities for employment, the gradual socio-economic level generated by the majority of the people whereby an average level of society is established, the reduction in the level of high inflation and unemployment, indices of per-capita income, and through the efficient allocation of resources in regulating the type of social relationships. The term “economic development” can be viewed from the perspective of a false dichotomy in the development process. The dichotomy resulted due to the identifying of economic development with the advancement of the “center” (the more developed and industrialized countries, usually capitalist, on the one hand) and the possibilities of the “periphery” (viz the less developed, under-developed, undeveloped or developing countries, often countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, on the other. What the political economist referred to frequently as “economic growth” – a sustained increase in the output of goods and services of a country, usually measured at one sector of the economy most times through the increase of the Gross National product (as one of the forms of indicators of economic development) is often confused with economic development itself. Historically, Nigeria’s economic development has evolved significantly, shaped by its rich endowment of natural resources, governmental policies, and its interactions within the global economy. Nigeria’s oil and gas sector accounts for about 90% of export earnings and more than 50% of government revenue (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2022). This over-dependence on oil and gas has made the country’s economy highly susceptible to global oil price fluctuations. Efforts have been intensified in recent times, to diversify the economy through the development of the agricultural sector, which accounts for about 70% of the labour force and about 24% of the country’s GDP (National Bureau of Statistics, 2022). The Manufacturing sector, though still nascent, holds great promise, in terms of its contributions to the nation’s GDP. This is the clear focus of the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP), designed to support the manufacturing sector to become globally competitive by increasing the sector’s manufacturing base (Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, 2022). The services sector has recorded the fastest growth in Nigeria, with telecommunications driving the expansion of mobile telephony and internet penetration. The financial services industry has been revolutionized, enhancing financial inclusion (PwC, 2023). Despite such progress, especially in the services sector, Nigeria’s economic development is still hampered by challenges of corruption, insecurity, political instability, and unacceptable unemployment rate, especially among the country’s youth population. Poverty is also widespread, as a significant portion of the country’s human population continues to live below the poverty line. Nigeria’s political leaders are today, also strained by contemporary socio-economic and geopolitical problems.

INTERPLAY BETWEEN POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The interplay between political leadership and economic development in Nigeria is profound and deeply influential, presenting a mix of opportunities and challenges over the years. Depending on the nature of leadership, sometimes military and sometimes civilian, centralized versus decentralized, this interplay between political leadership and economic development in Nigeria has been marked by significant shifts. Persistent issues such as corruption and political instability remain significant barriers. The path to sustainable economic development in Nigeria depends largely on the emergence of transparent, accountable, and effective political leadership. Economic policies and outcomes are directly impacted by political leadership. For example, Nigeria witnessed significant regional disparities due to political and ethnic tensions, during Nigeria First Republic (1960-1966), which greatly influenced developmental policies and economic development decisions (Falola & Heaton, 2008). From the late 1960s to late 1990s, the Nigeria witnessed long periods of military regimes, with centralized control over decision-making and economic resources. Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, signaling a significant turning point for the nation’s political and economic landscape. The Federal Government then, led by President Olusegun Obasanjo, from 1999- 2007, initiated significant economic policies, including banking sector reforms, privatization and the war against corruption to promote Nigeria’s growth and economic stability (Utomi, 2013). Despite these encouraging efforts, corruption, insurgency, political instability, and inadequate infrastructure have continued to impede substantial economic progress. Resources that could be applied for economic development have been drained by political corruption, due to large-scale mismanagement and embezzlement of funds by political leaders (Ekanade, 2014), significantly hampering Nigeria’s economic development. The establishment of institutions such as the ICPC and the EFCC demonstrates leadership commitment to combating corruption. However, the effectiveness of these institutions has depended largely, on the leadership’s commitment and political climate (Agbiboa, 2012). Political leadership seeks to recast the economy, the rules of the institution of property and production, and the distributional benefits from economic growth and stability; it seeks to redistribute property and production, enunciates and enforces written and principled rules of commercial behavior so that technology, skills, knowledge, and other means of production are deployed efficiently at the levels of the corporate sector, while acceptable distributional privileges are punctuated; and it seeks to protect and defend property rights, and to regulate the conduct and behavior of economic agents within the terms of written and enforced rules. The governance structure can either facilitate or obstruct the realization of the aim and objectives of political leadership.

CONCLUSION

Political leadership is fundamental in the process of governance, towards the achievement of desirable objectives, including economic development, social integration, public well-being, and such other related goals. However, political leaders could impact the economy in diverse ways, such as their political orientation and ideology. Furthermore, political leadership is expected to engineer the economy towards greater performance through various operative mechanisms like policy formulation, decision-making, implementation, and the evaluation of policies. It is these functions that allow political leaders to use public resources to create value for the improvement of the living standards of a country, while at the same time working to broaden social welfare, for instance, by increasing employment. Although political leadership’s corresponding influence on economic development can have significant consequences, either through its impact on policy change driven by its transfer of power from one set of political actors to another, or by altering expectations and beliefs, political regimes can shape patterns of economic development and distributions. Such leaders can act as a model, man of action, great communicator, or transformational leader, while others have been seen as people of vision pursuit focusing on creativity and risk persuasiveness inspiring trust to make things happen, society builder, nation-builder(s), nation transformer, and many more. Good political leadership creates an environment that promotes economic development. Intriguingly, corruption at all levels of governance, poor accountability and transparency have been identified as the bane of the underdevelopment of many African nations including Nigeria. To find solutions to these problems, this work has investigated the influence of political leadership on economic development in Nigeria. The paper is anchored on the legitimacy theory which emphasizes the importance of public confidence and trust in government-to-government effectiveness. The study adopted the quasi-experimental research design with the secondary source of data as the only source of data collection. Data analyzed were obtained from secondary sources using content analysis. The research found out that political leadership influences economic development in Nigeria ranging from ineffective utilization of resources, embezzlement of public funds, bad governance, poor service, and inadequate level of socialization, and encouragement of corrupt practices among public officials. This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to the challenges at the institutional structure and the political system in Nigeria. These challenges call for significant measures aimed at promoting good political leadership in Nigeria. For Nigeria to attain her worthy goals as a competitive and prospering nation, Nigerians must commit to re-establishing value for the common good, a good society, community, dialogue, tolerance, fraternity, and self-identity, fostering a mutual sense of belonging in full participation and well-being. Furthermore, initiating agile services reflecting due transparency and encouraging responsibility among all its leaders at all levels, in good faith and uprightness, and manifesting self-pride. To this end, the paper advocates for the urgent need for enhancing moral leadership and promoting genuine politics in terms of the inviolability of life, perennial morals, and the preservation of the human environment, and democracy for social and civil rights.

IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

When political leaders are unjust, oppressive and manipulative, it becomes difficult to share the goals of the elite, and consequently stifle efforts toward growth and development. However, and usefully, vision, political will, attributes of democratic inclusiveness and transformational qualities make great leaders capable of leading development and country mobilization into prosperity, democracy and development. A sense of national interest as the cardinal point of leadership informs the communal spirit of visionary political leadership in building and remolding the structure of a nation state. In conclusion, all historical trajectories to high growth in emerging economies were marked by focused attention to structural change by political leadership. In this sense, an inclusive approach and response from the political leadership in Nigeria places some optimism in the quest for long-term growth and economic progress. Leadership at the level of nation-states had a greater impact on growth and development than at any higher level. A developing country’s own leadership had the major responsibility to initiate, guide and pace its growth process. History and successful models of change provide a message of hope, that with the right policies, attributes and dispositions of its leaders, good countries can become better. However, at other times political leaders thwart the development of their nations through corrupt practices and greed that undermines development objectives.

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First publication: International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (ISSN 2454-6186), vol. VIII, issue VII, July 2024, p. 1274-1282, https://dx.doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.807106 Received: 17 June 2024; Revised: 30 June 2024; Accepted: 04 July 2024; Published: 07 August 2024.

Illustrative Photo by Christina Morillo: https://www.pexels.com/photo/black-and-gray-laptop-computer-turned-on-doing-computer-codes-1181271/

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